Quick Iran update from the weekend: the direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed Sunday after about 21 hours with no agreement reached. The fragile ceasefire is now in jeopardy, and President Trump announced the US naval blockade of Iranian ports starts Monday at 10am ET.

I had no expectations there would be any agreement met, so I kept most of my trades intact over the weekend. We’re still holding our oil and conflict-related trades (fertilizers, etc.). You can see the full list in TMAD.app under TMAD’s Trades (previously Lia’s Trades), along with our exact entries and exits in the trading log shared with all paid members. (See screenshots below.)

With that out of the way, I’m going to start with SPX levels for this week, followed by the top 10 stocks to trade this week, all chosen using our strict TMAD scanner criteria.

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Heading into this week, market sentiment was bearish. Oil was skyrocketing and then, just before 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, President Trump announced a two-week bilateral agreement with Iran. Markets reversed sharply. Oil crashed nearly 16% to around $94 — its biggest one-day drop since 2020 — as hopes grew for eased Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Crypto led the risk-asset rebound. Bitcoin surged from $68,000 to $72,700 in just two hours, triggering over $595 million in liquidations (mostly shorts). Ethereum rose 6% to $2,250, while XRP and Solana each gained over 5%. The CoinDesk 20 Index climbed nearly 5%, with altcoins outperforming.

However, the optimism quickly faded. By April 9, Iran accused the other side of breaching key clauses, oil rebounded toward $97, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted.

Bitcoin continues to push higher but is now approaching the top of its recent range around $75,000. The trading range has tightened to roughly $65,000–$75,000, and we’re forming higher highs — which could be forming another bear flag if diplomacy stalls.Immediate strong support sits at $65,000, where significant demand and limit buy orders from those who missed the rally are clustered. However, to move higher toward $80,000, Bitcoin needs to decisively break above the $74,600–$75,000 zone.

ETHEREUM

This looks like a classic accumulation phase. In the worst case, Ethereum could still drop to $1,700 or even $1,400. However, we’re currently trading in the $1,800–$2,300 zone, with strong resistance sitting at $2,750.Let’s see if we can push higher from here. As mentioned, ETH has shown more resilience against quantum computing risks compared to other assets. If you have strong conviction in Ethereum, this is a solid phase to accumulate.That said, we’re now at the top of the channel. If we fail to break above $2,300 and then $2,750, a retest lower remains likely.

Now let’s look at some GEX, Options flow and other metrics for WGMI, HUT, IREN, CIFR, COIN and IBIT. Some of these names are looking excellent, some aren’t worth while. Let’s dig in!

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Before jumping in our analysis, if you are a premium member and has already access to our beta app, you can the new video i’ve uploaded on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@TradingMindsetandData

I’ve also posted a guide for many italians following us, the final release is coming very soon for everyone but at higher price, if you are interested you get in at current monthly rate of $40 and then access to our tmad.app with your substack mail.

Now let’s move in today’s update:

PERSISTENT OIL DISRUPTION

The early optimism about a ceasefire is fading fast, and oil prices are climbing back up today. Despite the headlines yesterday, actual ship-tracking data shows that almost no tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is reportedly demanding huge 'tolls' in cryptocurrency for ships to pass, and many captains are staying put because of security fears and massive insurance costs. The market is realizing that a 'ceasefire' on paper doesn't mean the oil is actually flowing yet.

GASOIL FUTURES PRICE HAS RECOVERED PART OF LOSSES

POSITIONING UPDATE

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Geopolitical headlines are keeping stocks stuck in a range as investors pivot to earnings season, where growth is still expected to be strong. Most people remain optimistic that President Trump can resolve the war with Iran quickly—especially as oil prices approach $120, a level that usually triggers a TACO to cool the market.

TAIL RISK INDEX

The tail risk index (TDEX) is a measure to understand the cost of protection against a possible crash as it shows the implied volatility of far OTM puts of SPX. Currently is heading lower giving us a confirmation of complacency which means traders & investors remain long positioned while hedged. The divergence in TDEX vs QQQ shows how the market is still betting on a TACO, while Iran continues to deny any peaceful resolution.

RISKS AHEAD

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Just a quick update.

The war in Iran is a pickled mess and market is strangely positive about WW3 escalating and us losing control over the situation.

Today, there was a low volume across board, with QQQ, SPY still in downtrend and IWM being safely above 200DMA.

SPX Levels

We’re close to the resistance of 200DMA (grey line) and some supply levels at 6,710 and 6,695.

Normally we would get to those resistance levels and selloff but this time we held, which is a good sign but not good enough to go heavy long. Let’s see if we manage to get above those levels and 200DMA and hold there at least for 2-3 business days.

Support below at 6,600 and 6,513.

NDX Levels

Resistance: 24,580 / 24,480

Support: 24,150 / 24,080

IRAN:

Trump finds himself in a difficult position. Iran is unlikely to accept a temporary ceasefire and continues to insist on maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz alongside Oman.

If no agreement is reached, Trump will face a tough choice: either strike Iranian bridges and energy infrastructure, or extend the deadline again.

Bombing civilian or critical targets risks strong backlash from Russia, China, and much of the international community.

Should talks fail, Trump has signaled he will intensify strikes. This could prompt Yemen’s Houthis to block the Red Sea route, creating a significant chokehold on Middle East oil supplies for some time.

Further escalation, especially involving civilian targets, could draw in support for Iran from Russia and China — opening a dangerous new phase.

Trump had an opportunity to de-escalate last Wednesday but did not take it, leaving him with limited good options now.

Trading Book:

Our open trades are visible in Lia’s Trades on the app or in our trade log. Paid members have access to both. We remain cautious and will adjust if the situation changes. For now, stops are in place as planned.

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We keep getting disappointing news regarding the Iran conflict. We didn’t want to hold shorts into the weekend, while our longs performed well last week (see our trade log).

The aggressive morning bounce on Thursday was driven by low volume and bottom-fishers piling into longs ahead of the weekend. Bigger players covering shorts and also news that Iran and Oman are working on a deal to partially reopen the Strait.

At this point, the chaos and conflicting reports about whether the Strait is open or closed have traders’ heads spinning. Risks are high and conflict is everything but de-escalating.

The best approach is to stay focused on the signals and our scanner. Put emotions aside and trade what’s in front of you.

If the volatility and chaos become too much, sit on your hands.

Doing so this year might put you ahead of many others.

We’re still refining the scanner and spent the entire weekend making improvements. We’ll soon release the latest version, which will be even easier to understand and use.

We should be finished soon—hopefully this week—and then we’ll invite everyone to a webinar where we’ll show you exactly how to use it.

For now, please focus on these key signals:

• A positive momentum score

• Ideally, a positive IV Z-score

• And positive GEX

Under the scanner, you’ll see the short-term GEX activity. A call surge (strong out-of-the-money calls) often suggests a near-term rally.

For example, has a strong call surge along with positive GEX, momentum, and IV Z-score. We’re already in this trade with both calls and shares. We posted about it multiple times last weeks. Even though we’re still in a downtrend, these signals pointed to a potential reversal.

Let’s look at the names with the strongest momentum, flow and GEX activity into this week:

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The Google Quantum AI whitepaper released this week changed the math on Bitcoin’s survival. For a long time, the “Quantum Threat” felt like a problem for the next generation. Now, it has a deadline: 2029.

In this report, we are going to look deeper into the threats quantum computing poses to Bitcoin and how real this danger actually is. We will also dive into the massive outflows we saw in crypto over the past week and identify where that capital is heading. Lastly, we’ll provide key levels and GEX data for BTC, ETH, ETHA, IBIT, SOL, IREN, BITF, CIFR, MSTR and COIN.

Let’s begin.

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Last week, I pointed out the huge buildup of bets (call gamma) targeting $140 on USO, and today we hit it. The spark was Trump’s prime-time speech from the Oval Office. Any hope for a quick ceasefire vanished after he pledged another 2 to 3 weeks of intense military strikes to finish the job. This dashed the market’s hopes for a short-lived conflict, triggering a massive wave of short-covering in oil futures as traders realized the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopening anytime soon.

Screenshot of last week showing $117 spot price

In Europe, diesel prices are rapidly approaching $200 per barrel as the supply shortage finally starts to bite. This massive deficit is sparking a wave of panic across the markets this month. Since Europe relies on the Middle East for about 20% of its diesel, they are now desperately looking elsewhere for fuel. This is going to fuel a massive surge in demand for US WTI, as it becomes the primary 'safe' alternative for global refiners. With USO hitting that $140 target today, the market is already pricing in this shift toward American oil.

POSITIONING UPDATE

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Just a quick update from our morning chat at 11am ET (as we do every Wednesday).It was a strong day for the bulls, with major indices extending yesterday’s rally. The move was fueled by growing optimism around a potential de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. As we mentioned yesterday, there’s not much resistance standing in the way of SPY until $670.Please listen to the video below. I’ll go over the latest trade updates and walk you through how to use the scanner again, including some helpful case studies. Repetition is key to mastering it.I also find it risky to hold shorts over long weekends, especially this one. There’s a good chance some form of ceasefire could be announced, which would likely send the market flying higher.

SPX Levels

Resistance: 6,600 / 6,732

Support: 6,522 / 6,431

NDX Levels

Resistance: 24,500 / 24,100

Support: 23,710 / 23,330

TRADE UPDATES VIDEO

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bounced violently today and stalled right at the $650 strong ATM GEX level. If we can hold here and push higher, there is little real supply until $672.

President Trump is scheduled to speak tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. ET, which could provide the market with an additional catalyst toward those levels. We’re seeing notable options flow into the $660–$670 strikes, though there remains heavy put open interest at lower strikes, so caution is warranted.

SPX Levels

As you can see the blue line is 10DMA and we stopped right there. We have higher resistance zones at 6645 and 6736 so we can continue towards there on a good speach. If we selloff here, our support is 6486 and 6360 and potentially lower, as it would create corrective wave C.

NDX Levels:

Resistance: 24,500/ 26,200

Support: 23,350 / 23,500

Trade Updates

Here is our trade log. Automated trades with entries, exits and what’s still opened.

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Despite the S&P 500 weathering its worst week in recent memory, our core trades we posted last Sunday’s letter had a monster week.

• The Winners: OKE OXY, XOM, and CF all did incredibly well, showing massive relative strength.

• The Laggard: AGRO is lagging slightly behind the pack, but it is holding steady around our buying price.

The Plan: We are holding these positions and will update you when we close them. Also you have the charts from last week, so please keep them on your watchlist with respective stop losses. The stop is your safety net. We are seeing massive flow into a new set of trade ideas for this week as well, thus we’re following the money.

Market Performance: The Technical Void

The “break” we’ve been watching finally happened with some serious velocity. Last week, the S&P 500 dropped 2.1%, closing around 6366 (our support level from Thursday). The index is now down approximately 7% year-to-date.

We aren’t in “official” correction territory (SPX down 10% from the October highs) until the SPX breaks 6300 but it could happen in no time since we’re currently in a technical “no man’s land.” There are no immediate support levels on any major timeframe.

• The Line in the Sand: For the bulls to reclaim the narrative, the market needs to claw back above the 50-weekly moving average, which sits around 6472 and the supply level at 6,536.

• The “Ouch” Moment: Despite the drop, I am still missing capitulation volume. We haven’t seen that blind panic that precedes a “real” bounce. We might see a relief rally early this week, but without a fear spike, I’m not sure how sustainable it will be.

The Weekend: Escalation vs. The “Vance Factor”

The news cycle on Saturday was dominated by headlines of further escalation, but the real story is the official communication starting between diplomats. This is the key to market health.

The Catalyst to Watch: Rumors are swirling that Vice President JD Vance may show up in Pakistan to meet his Iranian counterpart.

• IF VANCE SHOWS UP, IT WILL BE MEANINGFUL.

• Iran reportedly views Vance as a more acceptable interlocutor than previous envoys. If he appears, it signals significant progress toward a deal. The market will likely respond very positively to this “hope” trade.

Are We Buying the Dip?

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Supply-side inflation risks are intensifying as the technical recovery time for disrupted refinery infrastructure is now estimated at 120+ days. The persistent maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke global energy flows.

Politically, the stakes have escalated following President Trump’s 'brutal consequences' ultimatum to Tehran. Axios and Pentagon sources indicate that high-level planning for a coordinated strike is underway for the coming window. This aggressive posture coincides with domestic polling data showing a decline in support, suggesting the administration may be seeking a decisive strategic 'win' to stabilize its political base.

POSITIONING AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND

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1. Logging into the TMAD App 0:15

• Go to tmad.app/signup

• Sign up and create a profile using the same email for Substack or Discord.

• Ensure you are using the email linked to your Stripe payment for membership access, verify your email before reaching out for support.

2. Overview of the …

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Geopolitical headlines have provided a temporary reprieve for equity markets, curbing the downward momentum that saw major indices breach their 200-day moving averages (200MA) last week. Despite the diplomatic overtures from the Trump administration, the tactical environment remains escalatory, with the Pentagon deploying the 82nd Airborne and Iranian officials dismissing the latest 15-point proposal. This 'stalemate' has forced a regime of 'hedging the hedge', where participants maintain deep downside protection while simultaneously positioning for a potential 'melt-up' scenario in the case of a surprise diplomatic breakthrough trigger systematic buy programs.

Market Liquidity

Equity futures liquidity has plummeted to YTD lows, matching levels not seen since the low of the tariff turmoil in March 2025. This contraction in market depth reflects a broad institutional de-risking, creating the classic 'brittle' conditions of a bear market regime. With the order book so shallow, realized volatility is likely to stay suppressed in small ranges, but with an elevated risk of 'flash' moves in either direction as algorithms exploit the lack of human-led liquidity.

Source: Bloomberg, Citadel Securities

GEX Profile Analysis SPY, QQQ

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Market bounced quickly, as we suggested in our yesterday’s letter, but quickly sold off when it became clear that the talk of “productive negotiations” with Iran is a cover story for a major climbdown. While the president claims that direct conversations are happening, no formal meetings actually took place. Communication only moved through third-party countries like Turkey and Qatar, and Iran continues to deny any real engagement.

The standoff began with a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or lose its power plants. Instead of retreating, Iran threatened to destroy energy sites across the Middle East and trap ships with sea mines—a threat they proved was real by placing at least a dozen mines in the water by Monday.

Faced with a global economic disaster and a deadline he couldn’t meet, the president used the “talks” announcement as an exit strategy to postpone strikes for five days. By rebranding a failed threat as a diplomatic opening, he let the clock run out without a fight. The danger now is that Iran now knows how to push the right buttons to force a change in U.S. policy.

Three out of four indexes are now in down trend with options positioning bearish and unusual flow into puts.

What levels to expect tomorrow on SPX and what trades we took today?

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The SPX recently broke below its 200-day moving average and our long-term support level near $649 (SPX 6500). While we did find buyers at those levels, we are now officially in a downtrend across three of the four major indices.

We could see a relief bounce here into the next major resistance zones at 6,537 and 6,565; however, even if those are broken out, we must remain cautious to avoid getting trapped in yet another lower high. A break below 6,495 would likely signal a pickup in downward momentum, opening the door to much lower levels.

NDX Levels

NDX is also on a very strong support and next levels of interest are:

Resistance: 24,200 / 24,050

Support: 23,850 / 22,000

Big move is possible. To either side. Keep it in mind.

We have been warning about overbought conditions and seasonal weakness for a couple of months now, so we hope you have kept some cash on the sidelines. While we will certainly be “buying the dips” for the long term, we aren’t quite there yet. Our ideal levels for going long would be around 6,150- 6000. Market could give us such opportunity considering the less favorable macro factors. We have global conflict that’s not calming down, but escalating, elevated oil prices, rate cuts nowhere in sight and inflation spiking again.

For now, our focus remains on playing momentum and rotations based on our scanner. This has proven to be the most effective strategy this year as we successfully rotated from Tech into Metals, Defense, Defensives, and now Oil.

Let’s dive into the data to see which names are seeing extreme call flow, which are overbought, and which are seeing the strongest bearish flow.

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Bitcoin surged to a six-week high near $76,000 on Tuesday as oil eased and the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of reopening. However, by Wednesday afternoon, ongoing geopolitical tensions alongside a stronger-than-expected US inflation print erased the entire move and then some.

Market Overview

By early Tuesday, BTC had reached $75,912, its highest level since early February. Analysis from 10x Research attributed the move primarily to the unwinding of large bearish put positions in the $55,000 to $60,000 strike range, with market-maker hedging amplifying gains rather than a fresh wave of spot buying. That distinction matters as the rally lacked the organic demand normally needed to sustain a breakout.

Driven by negative PPI and FOMC data, Bitcoin has retraced to $70,000. To reclaim the uptrend, we must break through the heavy resistance clusters between $78,000 and $80,000. If we breakdown this bear flag, we might get down to 50k, which would be my ultimate buying spot, down almost 60% from highs.

We are now entering the sixth month of this decline. While some suggest this aligns with standard 8–12 month halving cycle drawdowns—pointing toward a May recovery and a potential rate cut under a new Fed chair—my theory is that institutional involvement has tethered Bitcoin to macro trends as a high-beta asset sensitive to inflation.

Time To Accumulate Bitcoin?

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We’re seeing a massive sell-off in gold and silver as investors scramble for cash to cover their losses elsewhere. History shows that when oil prices spike like this, it almost always leads to stagflation—and eventually, a recession. If you look at the chart, every time oil deviates this far from its normal trend, a recession has followed. It looks like the recession clock is ticking again, and the market is finally starting to price in a hard landing and traders deleverage first in precious metals as it happened in 2007.

Source: Pictet Asset Management, Refinitiv Datastream

Over the last week, our scanner picked up a massive surge in 'crash insurance' (Put GEX) for silver. Traders clearly got spooked between March 11th and 13th as the reality of the global supply shock started to sink in. This unusually high level of put activity shows that while the long-term story for silver is still bullish, the big players were bracing for a messy short-term drop—and as we’ve seen with the recent 10% slide, they were right to be nervous.

USO Gamma Exposure

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Hi everyone,

Here is a quick preview of our app. All paid members now have access to the beta version for basic use, ahead of our official beta launch next week. If you encounter any bugs, please let us know, and be sure to consult the guide before reaching out with questions.

The app includes every name with liquid options; because of our contract with NASDAQ, we focus exclusively on US-listed securities. We will gradually provide tutorials explaining how to navigate the metrics and computations we’ve built into this scanner to keep your process as simple as possible.

Our featured trades for this week, are performing exceptionally well. We identified each of these setups using our scanner and will continue providing daily and weekly alerts.

Let’s look at the SPX/NDX levels now. We will send a dedicated commodities update tomorrow, as today’s price action was particularly volatile and messy.

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The February 2026 PPI report released today shows inflation is becoming more aggressive. Here is a direct breakdown of the data, the Fed’s reaction, and what it means for the market.

PPI: The Vegetable Shock

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% this month, far exceeding the 0.3% expected. Annual inflation hit 3.4%, the highest in a year.

The biggest driver was a 48.9% explosion in fresh vegetable prices. This wasn’t a single event but a “perfect storm” of three factors:

• Weather: La Niña droughts and freezes in Florida and Mexico have ruined harvests.

• Tariffs: Since the U.S. imports a third of its vegetables, new tariffs are hitting perishable goods that cannot be stockpiled.

• Labor: Ongoing deportations have left fields understaffed, with agricultural employment dropping 6.5%.

While analysts view the vegetable spike as a short-term supply shock, these underlying labor and tariff pressures suggest costs may stay high.

Powell and the “Stagflation” Denial

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%–3.75%. Jerome Powell explicitly denied we are in “stagflation,” yet described exactly that: an oil shock causing a “pincer move” of rising prices and slowing growth.

He is avoiding the word “stagflation” because it is a central banker’s worst nightmare. It implies that raising interest rates—the Fed’s only real tool—won’t fix inflation caused by supply shocks like the Iran conflict or labor shortages.

Market Impact & Treasury Yields

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