Commodities Report: Iran Intesifies Attacks, is the Crude Heading Higher?
Market Flow Analysis $USO $GLD $SLV $URA $GDX
Hello Traders,
Middle East tensions are at a breaking point. Following the US-Israeli strikes on Tehran and the death of the Supreme Leader, the Senate has officially voted down a resolution to curb the President's war powers, signaling that the military campaign will continue.
With Iran now effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and China ordering its refineries to halt exports to protect its own domestic supply, we are facing a massive global shortage. Refining margins are skyrocketing as gasoil futures try to break even higher—this is no longer just a 'headline risk'; it’s a full-scale energy crisis.
Gasoil Futures
RISK-OFF WARNING
FX positioning has reached a critical tipping point. Before the Iran escalation, net-short positions on the USD were at a 15-year high. This extreme 'one-sided' market has left traders vulnerable to a sudden unwind. As supply-side fears deepen, the flight to liquidity is fueling a dollar rally that is acting as a wrecking ball for risk assets. Early this week we have witnessed a classic domino effect where dollar strength is triggering broad liquidations across emerging markets and precious metals.
EUR/USD below 200MA.
To remain ahead of the curve let’s dig straight into current positioning for oil and the other commodities:
