Crypto Weekend: Bitcoin Range-Bound, Macro Headwinds Persist & Is Now Time To Buy Bitcoin?

$ETH $BTC

The crypto market remains in a risk-off posture as of December 7, 2025, consolidating after a brutal November and early December sell-off. The key narrative for traders is the market’s inability to break the 80,000 - $100,000$ , consolidation corridor, for Bitcoin, driven by restrictive global liquidity and an impending hawkish shift from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Near-term options trading confirms an expectation of muted volatility within this range.

Current Bitcoin Trading Levels

Key Trading Catalysts and Risk Factors

1. Global Liquidity and Central Bank Divergence

• Federal Reserve (Fed) Signal: The market is pricing in a 92% probability of a December Fed rate cut, coupled with an end to Quantitative Tightening (QT). A dovish signal could provide a much-needed liquidity injectionand be the green light for a risk-on rotation.

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Tightening: Speculation remains high that the BoJ will hike its policy rate to 0.75% on December 18-19. This creates a significant macro headwind as traders unwind yen-carry trades, which have been a source of cheap capital for risk assets like BTC. The tightening BoJ policy acts as a structural ceiling on risk sentiment.

2. Market Structure and Flow Analysis

• ETF Outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record significant net outflows, totaling approximately $3.5 billion in the last month. This persistent institutional selling indicates a lack of conviction and large-scale capital rotation out of crypto for now.

• Options Skew: The options market shows an overwhelming concentration of Open Interest in short-term contracts, with traders aggressively selling short-term volatility. This strategy, known as a “band trade,” profits if BTC stays locked in its $$80,000-$100,000 range, signaling a consensus expectation of near-term stability and sideways action.

• Leverage Flush: November’s $2 billion in leveraged liquidations cleansed much of the overleveraged longpositions, making the market technically “healthier” but leaving it susceptible to further capitulation if the $80,000 support (100 Weekly MA and our demand zone) is breached.

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Is Now a Good Time to Accumulate Bitcoin?

The current market signal, based on relative strength analysis, suggests that now is