Crypto Weekend: Conflict & Decoupling
$BTC $ETH $IBIT $IREN $MSTR $BITF
Hi everyone,
After a week of “digital gold” showing resilience during geopolitical chaos, crypto is cooling off. Today, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have been sliding as investors react to weak U.S. jobs data, locking in profits after a substantial recovery.
The Week in Review: Conflict & Decoupling
While traditional markets panicked over the Middle East tensions, Bitcoin proved its “decoupling” narrative.
The Shock: Last weekend, BTC flash-crashed to $63,000 following U.S.-Israeli strikes in Iran.
The Rally: By Wednesday, BTC surged 16% to hit $73,300, outperforming gold and stocks, which have struggled under the weight of rising oil prices (Brent crude briefly topped $83).
The Calm: As de-escalation signals emerged mid-week, oil prices dipped, and risk assets caught their breath—but the “crypto-is-different” momentum was the real story.
Why are prices dropping today?
The Friday morning slump is driven by a “triple threat”:
Weak U.S. Jobs Data: The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February (vs. a predicted 58,000 gain). Usually, weak data hints at rate cuts, but today it just triggered a “sell everything” panic across stocks and crypto.
Options Expiry: Roughly $2.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired this morning, creating a “gravitational pull” toward lower price levels ($69k for BTC).
Resistance Wall: Bitcoin tried and failed to break through $74-75k earlier this week. When it couldn’t hold that level, big institutional players (including BlackRock funds) pulled nearly $228 million out of the market. As posted before, we need to get above this resistance to go higher towards 80k.
What to Watch out for next
The $2,200 ETH Line: Ethereum needs to close a daily candle above this level to spark a fresh rally toward $2,600.
The Fed’s Move: All eyes are now on the March 18 Federal Reserve meeting to see if they will address the weakening labor market with a rate cut.
Now, let’s look at some options flow/ GEX and charts on MSTR 0.00%↑ IBIT 0.00%↑ IREN 0.00%↑ BITF 0.00%↑
