Crypto Weekend: Is Bitcoin Done?
BTC, ETH, ETHA, IREN, IBIT, ETHA, MSTR, BITF
Hello Traders,
The crypto market experienced its sharpest test in months this week as a “perfect storm” of macro headwinds collided. Investors are currently grappling with a hawkish FOMC hold, a brief U.S. government shutdown, and the psychological weight of Strategy’s massive 713,500 BTC stack slipping into the red.
With over $3 billion in liquidations and accelerating ETF outflows, the technical damage is undeniable. However, we shouldn’t be entirely surprised. Back in December, we proposed a key support level around $60k–$65k, and Thursday’s volatile session saw Bitcoin bounce exactly off that range, hitting a low of $60,008.
At that Thursday low, Bitcoin was down approximately 52% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,210.
The Halving Cycle and RSI Extremes
While the drop is staggering in dollar terms, this remains a classic crypto cycle. The Bitcoin halving is carved into the code to ensure scarcity by reducing new supply. Historically, post-halving years often feature these brutal “shakeouts” that flush out leveraged players before the next leg up. This tweet sums it up well.
The data confirms we reached a historical inflection point on Thursday. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit its most oversold level since mid-2022—the era of Terra/Luna and FTX. These rare RSI extremes typically signal late-stage bear exhaustion. In previous cycles, this level preceded a long basing phase that eventually launched the next major rally.
Beyond the Price: The “Financial Era” is the Foundation
While skeptics claim the “read-write-own” thesis (the evolution from consuming and creating content to owning digital assets and protocols via tokens) has failed, Chris Dixon of a16z reminds us that we are simply in a specific stage of evolution:
“It’s fashionable right now to declare that “non-financial use cases of crypto are dead.” Some people also claim that read write own has failed. These conclusions misunderstand both the thesis and the stage we’re in. We are clearly in the financial era of blockchains... Finance is the most natural place for that primitive to prove itself. It’s the foundation and proving ground for everything else.”
As we move forward, one of the most compelling next-generation applications is the rise of agentic commerce. We are beginning to see a world where AI agents use blockchain to coordinate and pay each other autonomously. Because blockchains are permissionless and operate 24/7, they provide the native “digital rails” that allow software to settle transactions instantly and manage budgets without needing a traditional bank.
Strategy and Discipline
Ignore the noise if you’re in this for the long term. When things go well, people invent reasons why Bitcoin is going to $1 million; when things go poorly, they find every reason why it’s going to zero.
Keep educating yourself. Staying calm is the most critical component of successful investing. If you’re a trader, the levels we provide are gold. Crypto can be frustrating; it requires patience, a strong stomach, and a clear strategy.
Now, let’s get to our analysis on BTC, ETH, ETHA, IREN, IBIT, ETHA, MSTR, BITF.
What are we looking at?
We track "liquidation clusters", price levels where a large number of leveraged traders will be automatically kicked out of their trades if the price hits a certain point.
We also observe GEX. While funding rates tell us about retail and hedge fund “conviction,” GEX tells us about the “market makers” (the big banks and liquidity providers).
Let’s begin!
BITCOIN
