Market Prep: Calm Before FOMC
SPX Update, Trade Ideas
Hello Traders,
Just a quick market update before tomorrow’s FOMC and earnings kick off, and let’s also talk about some new trade ideas and additions to our portfolio.
Overall, be ready for surprises. Market sold off sharply into the close and after hours
the Trump administration’s proposed 0.09% “increase” for 2027 Medicare Advantage rates is a surgical strike disguised as a rounding error. In an environment of persistent medical inflation, a 0.09% bump isn’t a flat rate—it’s a brutal funding cut that caught Wall Street completely off guard, as analysts were expecting a 4% to 6% raise.
The industry’s reaction was instant:
$UNH: -9%
$HUM: -13%
$CVS: -9%
The timing couldn’t be worse, just before Q4 earnings tomorrow pre-market. If earnings are poor, that could move market lower.
FOMC - The market is currently pricing in a roughly 95.6% probability that rates will remain unchanged.
SPX Levels
SPX is above 8 and 20 DMA. We could see a lot of volatility this week with earnings. Ideally we breakout 6,992 and 7,005 to move higher.
If we have bad news, we might retest the lower demand levels at 6,851 and 6,841.
Now let’s look at some trade ideas and what we want to execute tomorrow for our portfolios.
