Market Prep: CPI Consensus
Hello Traders,
This Friday, we get the latest CPI data, which should help the Fed decide its next move. While the overall inflation rate is expected to keep slowing down, the 'core' number the one the Fed watches most, might stay hot.
The Consensus Forecast
Headline CPI (Year-over-Year): Expected to land at 2.5% (down from 2.7% last month).
Monthly CPI: Expected to rise 0.3%.
Core CPI (Year-over-Year): Expected at 2.5%.
JPMorgan: The “Watch for the Spike” View
JPM’s trading desk is leaning toward a more cautious stance. They are highlighting the risk of a “hotter” print. They believe companies used the start of the year to hike prices for services and goods, which could make the monthly number jump more than expected.
Goldman Sachs: The “Resilient Cooling” View
Goldman remains a bit more optimistic, though they admit the data is getting “noisier.” They expect used cars and clothing prices to continue falling, which should act as a “buffer” against rising service costs (like insurance).
