Market Prep: NVDA H200 Chip Sales to China Approved, Market on a Critical Support

$IWM $NVDA $ZETA

Good evening traders,

The last seven trading days must have been some of the most boring days of 2025. While we were all taking a breather, waiting for a FOMC catalyst, this afternoon news emerged that President Trump said he spoke with China’s President Xi Jinping and approved NVIDIA H200 chip sales to “approved customers” in China. On top of what was already a good day, NVDA 0.00%↑ is up +2.4% after-hours.

NVDA is a significant component of the overall market, and this positive development could be the catalyst needed to finally break out of this post-Thanksgiving, pre-FOMC chop.

We also had some interesting trade ideas in our Sunday letter which haven’t come to fruition yet because the market was genuinely slow today. Some, like Baidu BIDU 0.00%↑ had a nice breakout but then a big overnight gap. When trading those, you ideally want to wait for a gap retest before entering.

Caution Ahead of FOMC

We must remain cautious, as this could be a pump right before the FOMC meeting that turns into a “sell the news” event if the Fed’s tone is hawkish. We must always have both scenarios in mind and a breach of a crucial support zone today is not ideal. If Powell is dovish, we might have our highly anticipated St. Claus rally into the Christmas and end of next week 12/19. If he’s hawkish, we can sell off to much lower levels. After the weekend 12/20-21 the volume will most likely stale again.

Tomorrow, Tuesday December 9, we have JOLTS - Job Openings at 10AM.

SPX Levels and Trade Ideas

Here are our key levels on the SPX and some trade ideas that we think might take off tomorrow and this week: