Market Prep: Rising Inflation Uncertainty and Strong Sectors Flow

$CRWD $SE Earnings, $IBIT $SPX

Hello Traders,

The geopolitical floor under crude oil prices remains firm as the conflict in Iran shows no signs of an early resolution. However, the most significant development is the 'safe-haven' rejection in the bond market. Rather than buying treasuries, investors are reacting to a dual shock: a supply-side crisis in gasoil (futures up 17% in the US / 45% in Europe) and an inflationary signal from the ISM Manufacturing report, where ‘Prices Index’ surged to 70.5 percent from 59 percent in January. This data is fueling expectations that the 'inflation rebound' is real, potentially pushing the next CPI print higher.

As a result, the high-yield bond market is starting to get nervous. We’ve seen a sharp spike in the junk bond volatility index (VXHYG), which keeps the broad VIX elevated.

The VIX term structure remains in a steady state of contango, signaling that bullish sentiment is still overriding geopolitical & macro uncertainty. This upward-sloping curve suggests a high degree of complacency, as the market refuses to price in an immediate 'shock' scenario. While realized volatility is currently pinned within a range-bound channel, the lack of an inverted curve (backwardation) shows that traders are still treating these risks as 'tomorrow’s problem' rather than a crisis for today.

Now let’s move into today’s flow analysis with CRWD 0.00%↑ ‘s expected earnings to be published tomorrow after the close and SE 0.00%↑ reporting before the opening bell. We’ll also look at IBIT 0.00%↑ bitcoin ETF where our scanner has detected unusual flow. In addition, we found 3 high-volume, high-flow trade ideas.