Market Prep: SPX Coiled Spring. Will Nvidia Spark a Breakout?

Rotations, Trade Ideas and SPX Levels

Hi everyone,

SPX has spent weeks locked in a tight 6,800–7,000 range, acting like a coiled spring waiting for a catalyst. Our analysis suggests the market is structurally primed for a significant move.

Currently, dealers are positioned with positive gamma between 6,800 and 7,000, which has acted as a stabilizer, dampening volatility. However, this stability is fragile. A sustained break above 7,000 could create a violent melt-up. The index recently found support at its 100-day moving average and closed back above its 50-day, a technical setup that historically tends to lead to a bounce following a VIX expiration.

The event that could light this fuse is NVDA 0.00%↑ set to report its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, February 25th. Stakes are incredibly high, with Wall Street consensus expecting revenue of approximately $65.6 billion, a more than 60% year-over-year increase, and EPS of around $1.52.

Given NVIDIA’s massive influence on the market, its report will likely dictate the market’s next major direction. A strong “beat-and-raise” could provide the thrust needed to clear the 7,000 wall. Conversely, any disappointment would likely trigger a test of the critical 6,800 support pivot.

Precise levels for Monday:

Resistance: 6,920 / 6,932 / 6,990

Support: 6,860 / 6,837

NDX Levels

Tech index needs to get above 50 and 100DMA and regain uptrend.

Resistance: 25,300 / 25,088

Support: 24, 787 / 24, 588

Trade Ideas and Flow