Market Prep: The "Amerizuela" Narrative and Why the Market is Mispricing Institutional Risk
Top GEX Accumulation
Hello Traders,
As we enter the second week of January 2026, the “Sell America” trade is no longer a fringe theory—it is becoming the dominant institutional narrative. The weekend’s escalation between the White House and the Federal Reserve has moved the goalposts for global macro strategy.
The Powell Subpoenas: Pretext vs. Reality
The Department of Justice’s decision to serve grand jury subpoenas to Fed Chair Jerome Powell marks an unprecedented breach of central bank independence. While the official DOJ line focuses on “criminal mismanagement” of the Fed’s multi-billion dollar building renovations, Powell’s own Sunday night video statement was a rare, blistering rebuttal. He framed the investigation as a “pretext” for political intimidation following his refusal to implement the drastic, rapid rate cuts demanded by the administration.
This isn’t just a legal battle; it’s a structural shift. We are witnessing the “normalization” of executive influence over monetary policy—a hallmark of emerging markets, not a global reserve currency issuer.
The Rise of “Amerizuela”
The market is currently underpricing the long-term risk of this regime change. If the Fed becomes an arm of the executive branch, we face a future of:
Target Drift: A “compliant” Fed likely allows inflation to settle comfortably above 2% to accommodate fiscal expansion.
Institutional Erosion: Capital flight as global investors seek jurisdictions with more predictable, independent rule-of-law.
Fiscal Dominance: With a 50% requested increase in the defense budget and ongoing tensions in Venezuela and Greenland, the need for a “printing press” to fund ballooning debt is higher than ever.
Strategy: 2026 High-Conviction Plays
In the short term, markets may rally on the hope of lower rates. Tech and small-caps ($IWM) will likely “fly” as liquidity is forced into the system. However, once the “Amerizuela” reality sets in, the rotation into hard assets will accelerate.
Hard Reserves: Gold is already testing $4,600 and Silver is nearing $85. These are no longer just hedges; they are becoming the primary alternative to a devaluing USD. Silver abd silver miners are up a great deal since we posted charts for you. Copper is flying and our trade setups from our weekly commodities report COPX 0.00%↑ SCCO 0.00%↑ are hitting our targets.
The Digital Reserve: Bitcoin’s can hit $150k this year as people lose trust in government and Bitcoin’s role is a sovereign, non-political asset.
Defense & Commodities: Given the aggressive foreign policy shifts and resource-security focus (Rare Earths in Greenland, Oil in Venezuela), these sectors remain the ultimate “conviction” pockets for 2026.
Now let’s take a look at which stocks are showing increasing GEX accumulation, as this can help us identify where momentum is starting to build.
See our today’s trades and top picks from our scanner + Delta earnings analysis.
Hello Traders,
As we enter the second week of January 2026, the “Sell America” trade is no longer a fringe theory—it is becoming the dominant institutional narrative. The weekend’s escalation between the White House and the Federal Reserve has moved the goalposts for global macro strategy.
The Powell Subpoenas: Pretext vs. Reality
The Department of Justice’s decision to serve grand jury subpoenas to Fed Chair Jerome Powell marks an unprecedented breach of central bank independence. While the official DOJ line focuses on “criminal mismanagement” of the Fed’s multi-billion dollar building renovations, Powell’s own Sunday night video statement was a rare, blistering rebuttal. He framed the investigation as a “pretext” for political intimidation following his refusal to implement the drastic, rapid rate cuts demanded by the administration.
This isn’t just a legal battle; it’s a structural shift. We are witnessing the “normalization” of executive influence over monetary policy—a hallmark of emerging markets, not a global reserve currency issuer.
The Rise of “Amerizuela”
The market is currently underpricing the long-term risk of this regime change. If the Fed becomes an arm of the executive branch, we face a future of:
Target Drift: A “compliant” Fed likely allows inflation to settle comfortably above 2% to accommodate fiscal expansion.
Institutional Erosion: Capital flight as global investors seek jurisdictions with more predictable, independent rule-of-law.
Fiscal Dominance: With a 50% requested increase in the defense budget and ongoing tensions in Venezuela and Greenland, the need for a “printing press” to fund ballooning debt is higher than ever.
Strategy: 2026 High-Conviction Plays
In the short term, markets may rally on the hope of lower rates. Tech and small-caps ($IWM) will likely “fly” as liquidity is forced into the system. However, once the “Amerizuela” reality sets in, the rotation into hard assets will accelerate.
Hard Reserves: Gold is already testing $4,600 and Silver is nearing $85. These are no longer just hedges; they are becoming the primary alternative to a devaluing USD. Silver abd silver miners are up a great deal since we posted charts for you. Copper is flying and our trade setups from our weekly commodities report COPX 0.00%↑ SCCO 0.00%↑ are hitting our targets.
The Digital Reserve: Bitcoin’s can hit $150k this year as people lose trust in government and Bitcoin’s role is a sovereign, non-political asset.
Defense & Commodities: Given the aggressive foreign policy shifts and resource-security focus (Rare Earths in Greenland, Oil in Venezuela), these sectors remain the ultimate “conviction” pockets for 2026.
Now let’s take a look at which stocks are showing increasing GEX accumulation, as this can help us identify where momentum is starting to build.
See our today’s trades and top picks from our scanner + Delta earnings analysis.
Cipher Mining (CIFR) has pivoted from Bitcoin mining to an AI Infrastructure powerhouse, recently securing a landmark $5.5B lease with AWS and an $8.5B total contract backlog. The hype is driven by its massive 3.4 GW power pipeline and recent high-profile hires from the Texas Blockchain Council and Galaxy Digital to lead its HPC expansion. With a Strong Buy analyst consensus and the stock trading as "Digital Oil," CIFR is a primary target for gamma-driven momentum as it transitions into a high-margin data center REIT model.
Traders accumulate calls on strike $20, total GEX is positive.
Technical Chart: Entry $17, stop $14, target $24.
IREN (formerly Iris Energy) has emerged as a top-tier "Digital Oil" play, headlined by a massive $9.7B AI Cloud contract with Microsoft. The company is aggressively scaling its GPU fleet from 23,000 to 140,000 units by year-end, targeting an astronomical $3.4B in annual recurring revenue. With its 1.4 GW Sweetwater 1 site set for energization in April 2026, IREN is now being re-rated by the market as a high-margin AI infrastructure giant rather than a volatile miner.
Traders accumulate calls on strike $55-$60, total GEX is positive.
Technical Chart: clear inverse H&S, after a while of bottoming IREN seems to be moving back up. Above $53.90 which is a bit of supplu we can see $70-$75 target.
Lemonade (LMND) has shifted from a speculative "insurtech" to an AI-native powerhouse on the verge of profitability. Following a 140%+ rally in 2025, the hype is driven by its proprietary "Lemonade LLM" and a path to EBITDA breakeven by Q4 2026. With over 55% of claims now handled instantly by AI and a newly initiated $98 price target from Truist, LMND is a key "Gamma Squeeze" candidate as it proves that AI-driven underwriting can structurally collapse traditional insurance cost ratios.
Traders accumulate call on strike $90-$100, total GEX is positive.
Technical Chart: Above $85 with stop at $78, our target is at $100. Nice risk to reward.
Full disclosure: Today we added LMND at $85.
We have WGMI 0.00%↑ as mentioned since last week still, holding on the breakout (this fund includes most of the favorite miners).
We have SIL, SILJ silver miners as well.
Delta Earnings Analysis
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is scheduled to report its Q4 2025 earnings tomorrow, January 13, before the market opens.
Earnings Expectations
EPS: Analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $1.55 (representing a ~16% year-over-year decline).
Revenue: Projected at $15.69 billion (a slight 0.8% increase year-over-year).
Key Headwind: Analysts are focused on a $200 million pre-tax profit hit (approx. $0.25 per share) caused by a government shutdown in December 2025.
Wall Street sees a current Average Price Target of ~$79.32, implying roughly 10-15% upside from current levels
Total GEX is positive with cluster $70 ITM & OTM $80.
SPX Levels
If we break demand zones we will probably retest the trendline. That would be a red flag to break the violet trendline. For now we’re in an uptrend and about to start earnings season tomorrow with Delta and JPM, just to name a few. We’ll see what tone those earnings set for the rest.
SPY Levels
Some of you would like to see SPY levels so we will be posting them here also.
Resistance: $705 / $700 / $698 / $696
Support: $693
That’s it for today,
See you tomorrow for more earnings reports and trade updates.
Team at TMAD