TGA, Institutional Accumulation and NVDA Earnings

$NVDA $HOOD $ASTS $VRT $SPX

Hello Traders,

Markets keep swinging sharply as volatility remains elevated, and a key piece of the puzzle is the coordination between the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet runoff and the Treasury’s cash management strategy. Many traders expected the Treasury General Account (TGA) to be drained more aggressively by now, injecting liquidity into the system. But the opposite is happening: Treasury is deliberately keeping the TGA stable to avoid amplifying stresses in funding markets.

This balance matters. When the Fed is still conducting QT, every dollar of reserves removed from the banking system tightens conditions. A sudden TGA drawdown would inject reserves back too quickly, creating an abrupt whipsaw in money markets.