TMAD Commodities: is a deal becoming reality?

$USO $URA $GLD $SLV

Hello Traders,

Oil has officially dropped back below $100, and for good reason. Axios just reported that the U.S. and Iran are finally looking at a draft deal to end the war, and traders are jumping all over it by selling off their oil positions. President Trump is under massive pressure to get gas prices down before the midterm elections, especially since his approval rating on the economy has slumped to 34%.

On top of that, U.S. debt interest is becoming a nightmare, with bond yields hitting nearly 5%, the government is basically paying a fortune just to keep the lights on. The market is betting that Trump needs this deal to survive, so the 'war prices' are vanishing.

That unusual put flow our scanner caught yesterday was the ultimate 'heads-up.' It showed that traders were already betting on a massive drop before the news even broke. People were clearly rushing to get ahead of a potential deal, trying to 'call the top' of the oil market.

POSITIONING UPDATE