TMAD Market Update: Iran and SPX Overbought Levels
SPX, NDX and Trade Updates
Hi everyone,
Just a quick update.
The war in Iran is a pickled mess and market is strangely positive about WW3 escalating and us losing control over the situation.
Today, there was a low volume across board, with QQQ, SPY still in downtrend and IWM being safely above 200DMA.
SPX Levels
We’re close to the resistance of 200DMA (grey line) and some supply levels at 6,710 and 6,695.
Normally we would get to those resistance levels and selloff but this time we held, which is a good sign but not good enough to go heavy long. Let’s see if we manage to get above those levels and 200DMA and hold there at least for 2-3 business days.
Support below at 6,600 and 6,513.
NDX Levels
Resistance: 24,580 / 24,480
Support: 24,150 / 24,080
IRAN:
Trump finds himself in a difficult position. Iran is unlikely to accept a temporary ceasefire and continues to insist on maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz alongside Oman.
If no agreement is reached, Trump will face a tough choice: either strike Iranian bridges and energy infrastructure, or extend the deadline again.
Bombing civilian or critical targets risks strong backlash from Russia, China, and much of the international community.
Should talks fail, Trump has signaled he will intensify strikes. This could prompt Yemen’s Houthis to block the Red Sea route, creating a significant chokehold on Middle East oil supplies for some time.
Further escalation, especially involving civilian targets, could draw in support for Iran from Russia and China — opening a dangerous new phase.
Trump had an opportunity to de-escalate last Wednesday but did not take it, leaving him with limited good options now.
Trading Book:
Our open trades are visible in Lia’s Trades on the app or in our trade log. Paid members have access to both. We remain cautious and will adjust if the situation changes. For now, stops are in place as planned.
