TMAD Update: U.S. and Iran Negotiations

$SPX $NDX $PLTR $NFLX

Hi everyone,

Market bounced quickly, as we suggested in our yesterday’s letter, but quickly sold off when it became clear that the talk of “productive negotiations” with Iran is a cover story for a major climbdown. While the president claims that direct conversations are happening, no formal meetings actually took place. Communication only moved through third-party countries like Turkey and Qatar, and Iran continues to deny any real engagement.

The standoff began with a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or lose its power plants. Instead of retreating, Iran threatened to destroy energy sites across the Middle East and trap ships with sea mines—a threat they proved was real by placing at least a dozen mines in the water by Monday.

Faced with a global economic disaster and a deadline he couldn’t meet, the president used the “talks” announcement as an exit strategy to postpone strikes for five days. By rebranding a failed threat as a diplomatic opening, he let the clock run out without a fight. The danger now is that Iran now knows how to push the right buttons to force a change in U.S. policy.

Three out of four indexes are now in down trend with options positioning bearish and unusual flow into puts.

What levels to expect tomorrow on SPX and what trades we took today?