TMAD Weekly: Mag7 Earnings Meet the Fed

Hi everyone,

Welcome to our weekly market prep report. Markets pushed to fresh all-time highs this week, driven by continued strength in AI stocks. One of the notable stories was SMH (semiconductor ETF), which surged over 30% this month, capping a 149% gain over the past year.

While euphoric spirits have recently prevailed, next week brings a rare, event-heavy calendar that could shift the options landscape considerably.

The Heavyweight Schedule

Five “Mag 7” companies - Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are set to report on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday. Qualcomm also reports this week, adding more fuel to the semiconductor narrative.

The Fed Wildcard

Layered on top of this earnings stack is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday. With the target range currently at 3.50%–3.75%, the market is pricing in a hold. However, the real volatility will likely stem from Chair Powell’s commentary regarding the recent inflation overshoot and how it impacts the path for the second half of 2026.

Index implied volatility currently sits below realized volatility, suggesting options are underpricing the turbulence the market is actually delivering. With forward implied volatility for April 30th at 22% compared to a 15% spot, the term structure indicates a significant volatility expansion is likely being overlooked ahead of next week’s tech earnings and FOMC decision.

There’s also a call surge on UVIX 0.00%↑ (2x Long VIX Futures) thus volatility might increase. When you trade make sure to have wider stops to not get knocked out from your swing trades. If you’re trading SPX, NDX, we’ll provide levels below.

Now, let’s get to trade ideas for this week: