TMAD Weekly: Market Prep and Trade Ideas
$COST $WMT $SATS $NFLX $CHWY
Hello everyone,
We keep getting disappointing news regarding the Iran conflict. We didn’t want to hold shorts into the weekend, while our longs performed well last week (see our trade log).
The aggressive morning bounce on Thursday was driven by low volume and bottom-fishers piling into longs ahead of the weekend. Bigger players covering shorts and also news that Iran and Oman are working on a deal to partially reopen the Strait.
At this point, the chaos and conflicting reports about whether the Strait is open or closed have traders’ heads spinning. Risks are high and conflict is everything but de-escalating.
The best approach is to stay focused on the signals and our scanner. Put emotions aside and trade what’s in front of you.
If the volatility and chaos become too much, sit on your hands.
Doing so this year might put you ahead of many others.
We’re still refining the scanner and spent the entire weekend making improvements. We’ll soon release the latest version, which will be even easier to understand and use.
We should be finished soon—hopefully this week—and then we’ll invite everyone to a webinar where we’ll show you exactly how to use it.
For now, please focus on these key signals:
A positive momentum score
Ideally, a positive IV Z-score
And positive GEX
Under the scanner, you’ll see the short-term GEX activity. A call surge (strong out-of-the-money calls) often suggests a near-term rally.
For example, NFLX 0.00%↑ has a strong call surge along with positive GEX, momentum, and IV Z-score. We’re already in this trade with both calls and shares. We posted about it multiple times last weeks. Even though we’re still in a downtrend, these signals pointed to a potential reversal.
Let’s look at the names with the strongest momentum, flow and GEX activity into this week:
