TMAD Weekly: Strong Flow and Trade Ideas
$DAR $DOW $CF
Hello everyone,
Despite the S&P 500 weathering its worst week in recent memory, our core trades we posted last Sunday’s letter had a monster week.
The Winners: OKE OXY, XOM, and CF all did incredibly well, showing massive relative strength.
The Laggard: AGRO is lagging slightly behind the pack, but it is holding steady around our buying price.
The Plan: We are holding these positions and will update you when we close them. Also you have the charts from last week, so please keep them on your watchlist with respective stop losses. The stop is your safety net. We are seeing massive flow into a new set of trade ideas for this week as well, thus we’re following the money.
Market Performance: The Technical Void
The “break” we’ve been watching finally happened with some serious velocity. Last week, the S&P 500 dropped 2.1%, closing around 6366 (our support level from Thursday). The index is now down approximately 7% year-to-date.
We aren’t in “official” correction territory (SPX down 10% from the October highs) until the SPX breaks 6300 but it could happen in no time since we’re currently in a technical “no man’s land.” There are no immediate support levels on any major timeframe.
The Line in the Sand: For the bulls to reclaim the narrative, the market needs to claw back above the 50-weekly moving average, which sits around 6472 and the supply level at 6,536.
The “Ouch” Moment: Despite the drop, I am still missing capitulation volume. We haven’t seen that blind panic that precedes a “real” bounce. We might see a relief rally early this week, but without a fear spike, I’m not sure how sustainable it will be.
The Weekend: Escalation vs. The “Vance Factor”
The news cycle on Saturday was dominated by headlines of further escalation, but the real story is the official communication starting between diplomats. This is the key to market health.
The Catalyst to Watch: Rumors are swirling that Vice President JD Vance may show up in Pakistan to meet his Iranian counterpart.
IF VANCE SHOWS UP, IT WILL BE MEANINGFUL.
Iran reportedly views Vance as a more acceptable interlocutor than previous envoys. If he appears, it signals significant progress toward a deal. The market will likely respond very positively to this “hope” trade.
Are We Buying the Dip?
