Crypto Weekend: Is Bitcoin Going Lower?

$BTC $ETH $CIFR $IREN $BMNR $MSTR $GLXY

Good evening traders,

Let’s go straight to crypto. Bitcoin is struggling due to persistent liquidity issues—thinning market depth, declining stablecoin inflows to exchanges, and regional restrictions creating “pay-to-exit” dynamics in some areas—which we’ve discussed in past letters (please check them out).

Additionally, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to hike rates by 25 bps to 0.75% at its December 18-19 meeting (even though markets have nearly fully priced this in, per recent Reuters polls and sources, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to such news). Many investors have borrowed heavily in yen via carry trades, and a rate increase could accelerate unwinds, prompting sales of high-risk assets like crypto to cover positions.

For now, be cautious with aggressive allocations. If this bear flag pattern breaks downward, the price could drop significantly lower. Positive news or announcements could create a bounce, but during the holiday period, that’s uncertain. We have last week of proper volume coming up and then it’s going to be very low and you don’t want to trade the hectic low volume moves.

We might see a short-term bounce toward $97,000–$100,000 next week, but we wouldn’t trust that bounce to be sustainable.

That’s our bias for now. We will play it by as we go based on news and price action. Levels are below if you’re trading.

If you want to know our hypothesis about Bitcoin in general and if it’s a good time to accumulate, please read our article here again.

Many highly volatile names are losing momentum and entering clear pullbacks or even Stage 4 declines, like MSTR. These can be dangerous and take a long time to recover from, so make sure you don’t get caught off guard.

The market isn’t crashing at the moment; it’s simply rotating into safer, less volatile names and we posted many for you in the past weeks (C, GS, NKE, HD, ADBE, etc.)

The issue is that most of FINTWIT is crowded into the same popular stocks, which have lost steam and people are waiting for violent bounces as we’ve seen this year, but momentum is elsewhere.

Now, let’s look at more crypto-related and data center names, such as ETH, BMNR, IREN, CIFR, MSTR, GLXY, and BITF - with full technical analysis, support/resistance levels.

Tomorrow, we’ll provide charts of stocks that are actually working, be either having a great momentum, flow or entering strong Stage 2 breakouts.

Let’s begin!